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In , Democrats gained six seats, and in , they gained four seats. Not so long ago, I spoke to hundreds of thousands of listeners across North America every day on a public radio show. The conversion of seats in trouble to Senate seat change is nearly one-to-one. Before she can make history as the first black female governor in America, she needs to make a name for herself with rural voters. Rasmussen Reports Calls It Right

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Sunday, September 16

Whitmer 50, Schuette Iowa Governor - Reynolds vs. Hubbell 36, Reynolds New York Governor - Democratic Primary. Cuomo 63, Nixon Minnesota 3rd District - Paulsen vs. Phillips 51, Paulsen Iowa 1st District - Blum vs.

Finkenauer 43, Blum Iowa 2nd District - Peters vs. Loebsack 45, Peters Iowa 3rd District - Young vs.

Young 47, Axne Approve 37, Disapprove Approve 40, Disapprove Right Direction 42, Wrong Track Ducey 48, Garcia Minnesota 8th District - Stauber vs. Radinovich 44, Stauber Kentucky 6th District - Barr vs. Barr 47, McGrath Georgia Governor - Kemp vs.

Abrams 45, Kemp Utah 4th District - Love vs. Love 49, McAdams California 48th District - Rohrabacher vs. Rouda 45, Rohrabacher Illinois 6th District - Roskam vs. Roskam 45, Casten Illinois 12th District - Bost vs. Bost 44, Kelly Bredesen 48, Blackburn Lee 53, Dean Democrats 45, Republicans Donnelly 49, Braun Scott 49, Nelson Utah Senate - Romney vs. Romney 55, Wilson Approve 42, Disapprove Approve 11, Disapprove Approve 25, Disapprove Right Direction 34, Wrong Track Hawley 47, McCaskill Scott 47, Nelson Gillum 50, DeSantis Approve 41, Disapprove Right Direction 43, Wrong Track Approve 36, Disapprove Right Direction 47, Wrong Track West Virginia Senate - Morrisey vs.

Manchin 46, Morrisey Pennsylvania Senate - Barletta vs. Casey 47, Barletta Pennsylvania Governor - Wagner vs. Wolf 52, Wagner Delgado 40, Faso Connecticut Senate - Corey vs. Murphy 54, Corey Connecticut Governor - Stefanowski vs. Lamont 49, Stefanowski New York 22nd District - Tenney vs. Brindisi 46, Tenney Democrats 47, Republicans Approve 23, Disapprove Approve 14, Disapprove Right Direction 38, Wrong Track Wisconsin Senate - Vukmir vs.

Baldwin 50, Vukmir Wisconsin Governor - Walker vs. Evers 46, Walker Kavanaugh Misled the Senate. I Can't Support Him. Google's Global Titans vs. Google and China--Made for Each Other. Is Donald Trump a Fascist? Stacey Abrams' Georgia Identity Politics.

The Myth of 'Liberal Intolerance'. Trump Finally Makes a Friend. Chief Sees the U. Ending the Palestinian Exception. Democrats' Top-Secret Formula for Victory. Will the Republican Party Listen? Why Obama Is Great for Republicans. Feinstein's 11th-Hour Shot at Kavanaugh.

Fracking Helped Make U. Lawmakers Never Learned From Lehman. The Bank Bailout of Was Unnecessary. How Wall Street Avoided Justice. Reflections from a Hashtag. Nate Silver , FiveThirtyEight. David French , National Review. Patrick Leahy , Washington Post. Jonathan Last , Weekly Standard. George Packer , New Yorker. Roger Simon , PJ Media. Peter Beinart , New York Times.

Heather Wilhelm , National Review. Anna North , Vox. Christian Adams , The Hill. Daniel Strauss , Politico. Karin McQuillan , American Greatness. Eric Alterman , The Nation. Maureen Dowd , New York Times.

Uri Friedman , The Atlantic. Caroline Glick , Jerusalem Post. Noah Rothman , Commentary. Frank Bruni , New York Times. The Cook Political Report in mid-August rated three House seats held by Democrats and 37 seats held by Republicans as toss-ups or worse. With a toss-up or worse difference of for the Democrats, they are likely to gain about 44 seats. If this comes to fruition, the next House will have a Democratic majority with about Democrats and Republicans.

Based on both in sample and out of sample errors, the odds are very high that the Democrats will emerge from the midterm with control of the House. The association between Senate seats rated in trouble in August and actual seat change is also strong, though not quite the level of that in the House. The conversion of seats in trouble to Senate seat change is nearly one-to-one.

Because Democrats are defending a much larger number of Senate seats than Republicans this year, there are many more Democrats seats that could potentially be in trouble.

As of mid-August, Cook rated five of the 26 Senate seats defended by Democrats and three of the nine Senate seats held by Republicans as toss-ups or worse. With Democrats having two more Senate seats in trouble than Republicans, we should expect Republicans to pick up two more seats, leaving the next Senate with 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats.

Charles Tien and Michael S. Lewis-Beck , Guest Columnists September 13th, We first generate a forecast from our classic structural model. Next, we adjust this forecast on the basis of expert judgments provided in Inside Elections with Nathan L.

OLS yields the following results,. To forecast the seat change in the House, we insert the independent variable values: For June , Gonzales reports 68 Republican seats in play, versus 10 Democratic seats in play.

This expert index clearly departs from our structural forecast We also use the same Structure-X modeling strategy to forecast the Senate midterm election. First, we use our classic Senate structural model to estimate a midterm forecast:. Inserting the independent variable values produces the Senate forecast of:. For July , Gonzales estimates that there are four Democratic party seats in trouble and two Republican seats in trouble.

A simple averaging of the structural forecast zero and expert judgement two produces a Structure-X forecast of a one-seat pickup for the Republicans in the Senate. Our Structure-X model forecasts that the midterm elections will result in a divided government. The Democratic Party is forecast to win 44 seats.

This outcome would give the Democrats a total of House seats and control of the speakership and all House committees. The newly seated House of Representatives controlled by Democrats would be balanced by a Republican Senate and executive branch.

Follow us on Twitter! In an effort to provide as broad a view as possible to readers about different methods of forecasting the midterm election, we have been featuring models from respected political scientists that aim to project the net seat change in the U.

Both suggest the Democrats are favored to retake the House majority. They too forecast a Democratic House takeover, and of a bigger size than the two previously published models. However, these forecasts also address the Senate, and they suggest Republicans are favored to retain control of the upper chamber. But first, Campbell has an introductory piece explaining these models and the overall midterm environment.

Political Science and Politics. The congressional arithmetic of The number of seats each party holds and needs to win to achieve a majority, the congressional arithmetic of , is also an important context of the election. The political climate of That is history, but how is the current political climate steering the electorate? Summary of the midterm congressional election forecasts James E.